Does the Trump Imran meeting indicate danger for India?

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What does the recent Trump Imran meeting mean for India? Does it mean a more dangerous neighborhood in the region? Or is there something else behind the Trump Imran Khan summit?

One can take out several meanings from the July 22 summit between the Pakistani Prime Minister and the U.S President. Brahma Chellaney thinks this summit is bad news for India as it means no U.S presence in Afghanistan. Foreign Policy magazine says that the U.S is not interested in an anti-India government in Afghanistan. There are different opinions about the meaning and results of this meeting and this article shares some of those.

What’s so special about the Trump Imran meeting?

Two things marked this meeting.

One was Donald Trump’s offer to mediate on Kashmir between India and Pakistan. In this context, he also said that Modi had requested him to mediate in the Kashmir matter.

Of course, New Delhi denied that such a request had gone from Narendra Modi to Donald Trump. The U.S President is lying, was the unspoken message from New Delhi.

The other highlight of the U.S -Pakistan meeting was the American withdrawal from Afghanistan. It seemed that the United States was, short of, begging Pakistan to let its troops leave Afghanistan peacefully. It’s been more than 19 years that the American troops are stationed in that landlocked country and now Uncle Tom wants to quit Afghanistan as quickly as possible.

What does this meeting mean to India?

On the face of it, Trump’s offer to mediate on Kashmir is bad news for India. This means that Washington is once again tilting toward Pakistan. And India’s assessment may not be wrong.

Please note that there is no room for any third party on any matter between Pakistan and India. The Simla Agreement between Bhutto and Indira Gandhi was very clear that all disputes between the two countries had to be resolved bilaterally. By wading into Kashmir waters, Trump was kind of offending India.

After the Trump Imran meeting got over, America announced a $125million aid to Pakistan. This money is meant for the maintenance of the F16 fighter aircraft stationed in Pakistan.

Let me remind you that Pakistan had used one of these planes to attack India in late February 2019. Clearly, Trump gives two hoots to this event. Indian security concerns don’t matter to this American president, perhaps.

But there is another reason why India should be worried about Trump Khan summit.

And that has got to do with Afghanistan.

Trump was kind of begging Pakistan to let the Americans leave Pakistan safely. He doesn’t want to see a single American soldier killed or wounded in Afghanistan. Trump had promised to Americans that their troops will leave that country safely.

Also, read- Is Pakistan under Imran Khan really changing?

The time has come to fulfill that promise. It’s election time in the United States and Trump wants to become the U.S president once again.

If the American troops leave Afghanistan, there will be no India-friendly government in Kabul. The Taliban will take over Kabul and then help Pakistan to spread terror in Kashmir.

Therefore, any U.S withdrawal from Afghanistan means more danger in Kashmir.

How do the Pakistanis look at this Trump Imran meeting?

The Pakistanis are, figuratively, jumping in joy. Many of them think that it is now just a matter of time that Kashmir will be a part of Pakistan. How cute!

Over the past few years, Trump has been sounding very angry at Pakistan and wants this country to stop its terror activities in Kashmir once and for all. America is disappointed in Pakistan because the latter is a hotbed of terrorists.

This has led to the stoppage of military and financial aid from Washington to Pakistan. No money from the West means economic mess for Islamabad. For the past couple of years, the Pakistani economy has messed up big time.

But Trump’s announcement of the $125 million military aid has made the Pakistanis jump in joy. They think that after the Trump Imran Khan meeting in Washington, Pakistan will tide over its economic problems.

However, many observers think differently on this issue.

Iran factor

Iran and Pakistan do not enjoy the best of relations these days. Perhaps it has to do with the former being a Shia country and Pakistan being dominantly Sunni.

Even U.S and Iran do not see eye to eye on many issues and one of them is Israel.

Over the past few years, Iran supported elements have come to power in Damascus and Beirut. If you look at the map of the Middle East, you will appreciate what I mean. Both Syria and Lebanon are neighbors of Israel and the Jewish state does not like Iran-backed forces nearby.

Having a dominantly Sunni Taliban regime on the north-eastern borders of Iran ( Afganistan) helps the United States as well as Israel. This way, Iran could be persuaded by both these countries to give up its hostility toward them. Is this also another reason why America wants to be friendly with the Taliban in Afghanistan?

Another reason could be to pressurize Tehran further and force it to accept key U.S demands. Remember, The U.S walked away from its agreement with Iran a few years back saying the latter was secretly enriching Uranium.

The United States has never been friendly with Iran all these years. After the fall of the Shah of Iran, Americans have always tried to undermine Tehran in various ways. The American policy on Iran depends upon Washington’s relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia.

So, by offering the Taliban an olive branch, Trump hopes to kill two birds with one stone – peaceful withdrawal from Afghanistan and pressurizing Iran.

Is the wily American President aiming at a third bird too?

A third bird too?

It goes without saying that Donald Trump treats his presidency as some kind of business activity. The only thing that matters to him is jobs to the American people and the domestic economy.

Look at his visits, and you will understand what I mean. All the foreign visits of Donald Trump are aimed at getting more jobs for the Americans. Most of the time, he is talking business deals with visiting foreign dignitaries.

So how do we interpret Trump’s Kashmir remark given his hunger for business?

Does Trump want India to ditch its arms deals with Russia and go in for American weapons?

I think by raking the Kashmir issue, Trump is indirectly forcing New Delhi to start buying American planes and guns. And thereby help the American domestic economy too!

Or, he wants India to open its markets somewhat more for American products. Remember, the United States has had an unequal trade relationship with India, the balance of trade is in India’s favor these days.

Not so easy for Pakistan

Many observers believe that it won’t be so easy for Pakistan to convince America to broker a deal over Kashmir.

The Americans have invested too much in their relationship with India over the past few years. Democrats, as well as Republicans, agree that New Delhi can really play a very crucial role in the Indo- Pacific region. India is one of the very few countries in this area to stand up to China.

By needlessly interfering in Kashmir, Trump would indeed be doing a harakiri.

A few observers also believe that America would not like to have an anti-India setup in Afghanistan once its troops leave that country. If Pakistan is thinking that it would have a cakewalk in Kabul, then it is fooling itself bigtime.

Lessons for India after the Trump Imran meeting

After so many years, we still haven’t learned the right lessons.

We let America meddle in the Indo-Pak ties right after the Balakot strike. Don’t we all remember Trump saying that Pakistan should release the Indian pilot? Mr. Modi shouldn’t have allowed America to meddle that time. Today, the same Trump thinks he has all the rights to mediate in a purely bilateral matter.

We also lost a golden opportunity to close the Kashmir issue after the Balakot strike. The Modi government should have attacked Pakistan with all the force necessary after a Pakistani jet intruded our territory in Kashmir. Had we attacked Islamabad then and there, Pakistan would not have even squeaked anything about Kashmir.

In fact, India doesn’t know how to play the slog overs in international diplomacy. We let all the 92,000 Pakistani soldiers that we captured, go free without any conditions. After the Kargil war victory, we again missed our golden chance to settle the Kashmir issue. And in 2019, we once again failed to strike the winning goal against Pakistan.

Last word

I would stick my head out and say that the next few months are going to be very crucial for India. Expect a lot of bombs and fireworks in Afghanistan and Kashmir. Pakistan would once again try to stoke terrorism in the valley.

And right now is the time to close the Kashmir issue once for all. Cancel Article 35A and integrate Kashmir with the rest of India.