What lead to win of BJP in the General Election 2019, a closer look
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As the election season progressed and the country went to vote, it became evident that the Modi wave was still going strong. A lot of people expected a BJP victory. The exit polls after the end of the voting also showed that BJP led NDA alliance was the strongest contender. So come election result day, it wasn’t the Modi victory that surprised people. It was the margin of victory that sent shock waves. The Modi wave wasn’t just going strong. It had become bigger than ever before. BJP won the elections with a bigger vote share than the previous general election.
The game changer in this election has been that the majority mark has been claimed by a single party (BJP with 303 seats) rather than an alliance. With a total of 37.4% vote percentage, the BJP increased its vote count by 6.4%. Out of the total seats, 224 seats register BJP victory with more than 50% margin. BJP’s seat retention has been as high as 81.8%. in fact, out of all the states and Union Territories, 10 have shown a clean sweep by the BJP. These numbers have shown that BJP has attained a historic victory.
So what was it that took BJP and the NDA alliance to this outstanding victory? Was Modi’s decisive character or his reputation of making sure that things were done instead of being just spoken of? Was it his strong stand on national security or push for a more aggressive and effective foreign policy? In this article, we have conducted an analysis of the general election 2019 results and what are the things that worked in Narendra Modi’s favor.
Modi as the Leader Apart
It can be said that Narendra Modi is one of the strongest politicians to have rallied in India. If not the Ultimate Throne, he is sure to be added to the Politician’s Hall of Fame. Since the 2014 elections, Modi has been a cut above.
From the very start, he had the strength to reign in the ministries in a way reminiscent of Indira Gandhi. His absolute control may even be compared to the work done by the British Prime Minister, Mrs. Margaret Thatcher. He had tolerance for the freedom of ministries, but only to a certain limit. Mistakes were ignored as long as they remained mistakes. The moment they became actual offenses, it was duly noted.
What Helped Modi in General Election 2019
Modi’s win in the Lok Sabha elections has added prestige to his ‘Presidency’, as he now has more than a fair share of wiggle room to be the Prime Minister. This is only compounded by the fact that the seats BJP has won, projections considered, are enough that he may win. This is even if he was to not take the support of his alliance, and thus he doesn’t have to be the one who jumps through hoops to gain support. He has been emboldened and now, with a highly ambitious idea, he has stepped forth, without the absolute need to please allies, arm-twisting him into decisions. He personally stood as one of the support pillars of BJP’s voting supremacy. The name of NaMo acted as the brand endorsement the BJP needed to be the victor.
Strong actions against Pakistan
Recent claims suggest that BJP’s victory was all about the people’s Rashtravaad and the recent Surgical Strike and Airstrike, carried out across the LoC. In fact, some people have even theorized that the BJP was headed to defeat until the bombardment cleared away the opposition as well. While the Balakot strikes and the Surgical Strike did sway the public in BJP and Narendra Modi’s favor, it is wrong to assume that it was all that led to the unprecedented routing of the opposition in the Lok Sabha elections.
It was the cumulative effort of these military shows and other steps taken that, slowly but surely, tipped the scale in the direction of the Lotus.
Schemes of Public Welfare
The BJP’s own Prem Katha with toilets, the fulfillment of promises in making houses for the poor, the electrification of villages and the subsequent lowering of bills due to the promotion of LED’s, Aayushman Bharat and the decrease of drug costs, all acted as harbingers for Modi.
With the economic security of people being helped with Jan Dhan accounts and timely implementation of the same, the situation was only helped. Farmers were supported in their incomes, upper castes were included in quotas and earning up to 5 lakhs was not an invitation to income tax, because the government waived it.
The opposition claimed that Modi was treacherous and untrustworthy. Unfazed, he carefully planned and timed foreign visits. He focused on infrastructure and overall charisma to gave off a single warding message: while not all promises of the first term were seen through, the stab at a first time was pretty decent and made it sure that he deserved another shot at being the top gun.
Prominent Supporting Pillars
The following are some decisions and people which catalyzed the BJP/NaMo win:
- The Ujjwala Scheme – The Ujjwala Scheme was a major helper as it brought support in the form of homemakers. This gave them access to deposit free LPG, especially to those Below the Poverty Line. It ensured that women no longer had to go out of the way to find firewood or face the hazards walking hand in hand with wood-stoves.
- The Jan Dhan Yojana – The Jan Dhan Yojana proved to be huge because now scheme money could be paid directly into a bank account. The implementation of this added to the ease and comfort of the poor, gaining immense support from them.
- The Chowkidar – The ‘Main Bhi Chowkidar’ movement was a turning point. Modi’s call made this an inclusive program so everyone participated, no questions asked. Rahul Gandhi wished to club this together with the Rafale Deal and started “Chowkidar Chor Hai’. He wished to discredit Modi but it turned out to have a boomerang effect. After Modi taking up the theme, it became very popular. In a move taking the opponents strength against him, Modi used this to turn the tide in his and BJP’s favor.
- Akshay Interview – Modi hoped to make interactions more mass-friendly and informal. In an interesting move, he had an interview with Akshay Kumar, in an informal setting. This was highly popular with over 2.5 crore followers. The oppositions call for this being discredited as a PR stunt was quashed by the overwhelming support for the same, especially by women.
- Amit Shah – Amit Shah was a one-man battering ram, breaking into opposition strongholds. He felt the need to track the more inhospitable areas and launched ‘Operation Coromandel’. This ensured steps of the BJP into West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana, and the beginning of cracks in the tough front that is Kerela.
- Economic and Business Development – Investors in the Modi Era felt that another term would be good. They were even more confident as they saw his work in the first term as he worked on and honed the taxes in the country and brought corruption in the government to its knees in desperation. Counting day even saw a development of the economy, with the Rupee gaining 2 points and reaching a new high. The business community saw the ills of a coalition government where cracks existed. To this end, a significant unity was seen in the vote casting in that end.
Analysis of the electorates revealed that the stagnant growth of economy troubled the people but they wished to give Modi another chance as they felt that 5 years in the office were not enough to tie to bring about much of a change.
What contributed to the Congress’ loss
The Congress was, once again, eviscerated. While the party’s performance was improved from the 2014 general elections, it was by a mere 0.2%. Not a lot of people expected this since the Congress’ performance has improved in the Assembly. However, not only was the performance abysmal, the Gandhi family even lost their hold on Amethi. The Amethi seat has historically been won by the Congress; Gandhi family had been undefeated in Amethi.
So what went wrong for the Congress? How did the party go from two consecutive victories in 2004 and 2009 to 2 consecutive losses since 2014?
Discrediting of the Gandhi-Nehru lineage
The most important factor has been the discrediting of the Gandhi-Nehru lineage. The NDA has proven that while the Gandhi-Nehru family worked for the benefit of the nation in its early years, the last few decades have shown poor initiative and dedication from them. Indira Gandhi’s Emergency began an era of darkness for the party that was interrupted by her and her son’s assassination at two separate points. Another beacon of hope came with the Congress victory in 2004 and 2009. However since they lost power in 2014, several scams and scandals have come to light which shows the corruption within the party.
Failure to replace Gandhi family from the helm
In relation to the first point is the second reason for the Congress defeat. The Gandhi family has continued to hold on to the leadership of the party. Modi has openly mocked Rahul Gandhi as the ‘Shehzada’, a mere Scion of a lineage. The prince who doesn’t connect with the masses and comes from a lineage that is corrupt and has cheated the people for years.
As reported by several analysts, the party garnered support for Rahul but he failed to make a connection with the people, something that Modi has proven to be excellent at. This refusal of the Gandhi family to hand over the reins has lead to them losing several important leaders like Sharad Pawar and Mamta Banerjee. These two are, incidentally, amongst the other parties that have performed well, after BJP and Congress.
The younger lot of the Congress has talent that performs well but does not get the due recognition and leadership as Gandhi’s continue to clutch the Congress throne.
A poor campaining
The entire campaign plan of the Congress was flawed, and that seems to be the third factor contributing to the Congress’ loss. The party seems to have focused on what Modi has done wrong and where they fell short. The focus should have been on coming up with policies that showed that Congress was still in the game and was with its citizens.
Also, the party’s finances have been dwindling for a while now. Its investments have not been smart and are now falling through cracks which have grown wider than ever before.
Conclusion
What the Congress needs now is to rethink its policy and reconsideration of its plans. Work needs to be it into improving its credibility and making it an organization that the citizens can believe in. For now, Modi is not just here, he is clearly here to stay for a while. If his plans are executed so and a more integrative approach taken to policy building, Modi could also be making his way towards a third victory, as per some analysts.
